The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation associated risks to due loss bearing capacity thaw subsidence in regions the Arctic. Using a subset three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 585 scenarios estimated changes ground between two reference decades: 2015–2024 2055–2064. publicly available databases identified roads, railways, airport runways, buildings risk country-specific costs with damage infrastructure. The results show that scenario 29% 23% railroads, 11% will be affected degradation, costing $182 billion states mid-century. Under SSP585 scenario, 44% 34% 17% cost $276 billion, runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected have highest burden costs, ranging from $115 $169 depending scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions potential significantly decrease projected damages countries, especially Russia. approach presented study underscores substantial climate can assist develop adaptation mitigation strategies states.
منابع مشابه
Impacts of permafrost degradation on arctic river biogeochemistry
Over the next century, near-surface permafrost across the circumpolar Arctic is expected to degrade significantly, particularly for land areas south of 70°N. This is likely to cause widespread impacts on arctic hydrology, ecology, and trace gas emissions. Here, we present a review of recent studies investigating linkages between permafrost dynamics and river biogeochemistry in the Arctic, inclu...
متن کاملCurrent rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
The rates of subsea permafrost degradation and occurrence of gas-migration pathways are key factors controlling the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane (CH4) emissions, yet these factors still require assessment. It is thought that after inundation, permafrost-degradation rates would decrease over time and submerged thaw-lake taliks would freeze; therefore, no CH4 release would occur for ...
متن کاملsurvey on the rule of the due & hindering relying on the sheikh ansaris ideas
قاعده مقتضی و مانع در متون فقهی کم و بیش مستند احکام قرار گرفته و مورد مناقشه فقهاء و اصولیین می باشد و مشهور معتقند مقتضی و مانع، قاعده نیست بلکه یکی از مسائل ذیل استصحاب است لذا نگارنده بر آن شد تا پیرامون این قاعده پژوهش جامعی انجام دهد. به عقیده ما مقتضی دارای حیثیت مستقلی است و هر گاه می گوییم مقتضی احراز شد یعنی با ماهیت مستقل خودش محرز گشته و قطعا اقتضاء خود را خواهد داشت مانند نکاح که ...
15 صفحه اولذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Research Letters
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1748-9326']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acab18