The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation associated risks to due loss bearing capacity thaw subsidence in regions the Arctic. Using a subset three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 585 scenarios estimated changes ground between two reference decades: 2015–2024 2055–2064. publicly available databases identified roads, railways, airport runways, buildings risk country-specific costs with damage infrastructure. The results show that scenario 29% 23% railroads, 11% will be affected degradation, costing $182 billion states mid-century. Under SSP585 scenario, 44% 34% 17% cost $276 billion, runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected have highest burden costs, ranging from $115 $169 depending scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions potential significantly decrease projected damages countries, especially Russia. approach presented study underscores substantial climate can assist develop adaptation mitigation strategies states.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Research Letters

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1748-9326']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acab18